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COP27 UPDATE: Day 11, 17 November 2022

By Mark Bonner posted 18-11-2022 05:57 AM

  

Having just sat through 5 hours of discussions by all the Heads of Delegations on what the COP27 outcomes ought be, and how these outcomes should be politically signalled to the rest of the world (via what's called Cover Decisions); I can honestly say that I'm no closer to guessing what a "Sharm el-Sheikh declaration" (or whatever formal personality they attribute to it) might look like. 

While drafting this update (at 7pm, 17 November 2022) I'm still waiting to observe the first phase of concluding plenaries (commencing at 8p and going through to 10p) which will continue into tomorrow.

Meanwhile Damian Ogden (EA GM, Policy and Advocacy) is representing EA at an Australian Government hosted reception, where I understand cold beer and canapes are being served (of course). Damian has been a real asset here in Sharm and continues to forge deep and valuable advocacy relationships with key influencers, allied enablers and targeted decision-makers located both at home and abroad.

But based on previous COP experiences, many delegates here have been (reasonably) expecting from about Monday onwards frequent and regular communications by the COP President typically urging all parties to conclude their business in a timely manner by finding consensus on the issues that can assure the rest of the world and real global economy that progress has been made here in Egypt. I have to say though the COP President has been conspicuous by his absence.

I haven't actually seen or heard him formally or informally reveal to delegates what progress is being made (except via a 3 and 30 minute press conferences on Tuesday and today respectively; and noting that both sessions were closed to questions), or what red-line issues need continued political arbitration, or even his plan on how he intends to close these negotiations successfully and smoothly by COB Friday, 18 November 2022 (I think we all know the conference will continue well into the weekend).

He did release a 20 page draft cover decisions (a type of political declaration adopted by all 200 or so nations) text today, but it strays into generic information (albeit important) that really has no connection with the formal agenda items being negotiated. As the head of the Independent Association for Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) put it "there seems to be no procedural link between the proposed decision text and actual negotiating decisions." 

These cover decisions are always incredibly challenging for the President to close given the nature and complexity of themes and decisions that run through them.

For example, the cover decisions need to strike a balance in representing all the issues to the satisfaction of all nations. In regard to the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, Ecuador wants cited in there a paragraph that would essentially see a re-negotiated decision of the Paris Agreement. They want something like '1.5DegC with no emissions overshoot' and no reference to 2DegC as the limit. Of course, COP27 has no mandate to renegotiate any of the previous legally binding decisions be they in the Paris Agreement or the Glasgow Climate Pact.

Indeed India rightfully argues that not all countries need to be held to ‘net zero emissions by 2050’ and that what really only matters is the nationally determined nature of outcomes based on the UNFCCC’s long-observed principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) of countries. But this may simply be signalling a potential for prospective backsliding on Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledges?

Other complex and sensitive references needing to be in the statement will be human rights, gender equity, rights of children and intergeneratiions. indigenous rights, sustainable development, just transition, poverty eradication (among others). And while all of these issues are legitimate and arguably of greater importance, they also have existing sister treaties in which they are being observed and implemented. And so it can be seen through this process that the complexity of climate action is in reality executed through the collective lenses of the 17 goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Indeed, the challenge for the cover decisions is to reflect what this COP has and continues to be branded as, that is an:

  • African COP (focus being adaptation and finance)

  • Updated ambitions COP (that is we are way off track to achieve on 1.5 DegC and on track for a 2.8DegC temperature rise on pre-industrial times)

  • Implementation COP (that is making operational the key mechanisms of carbon markets, technology and finance).

One area that is clearly a sensitive one for most if not all developing countries is how REDD+ (a voluntary market for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) formally relates to Article 6 (international and project level carbon markets). Without getting into the technical details of so-called 'authorisations' and 'corresponding adjustments', meeting the evolving accounting requirements of Articles 6.2 and 6.4 which are being negotiated here will take more time (many issues are likely to be kicked on down the road to COP28); in the meanwhile forests continue to be lost - noting there’s a huge spotlight here on the fate of the Amazon (with Brazil's president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva here for the past few days declaring he will save the Amazon), and ecosystems destroyed and/or their regeneration delayed for largely administrative (albeit important) reasons.

There’s many more issues contained in the draft cover decision text, and if you’re interested in reading more, you can access it via this link.

Of course, the civil society (NGOs and corporates) and government showcasing of actions and solutions continue in full swing. The ISO for example hosted a couple of interesting events today on the convening power of standards to drive climate actions. Many of these events, including the ISO’s, have been recorded and you can find them on YouTube here.

I think what this COP has done well, or maybe it's just that other COPs have done badly, is to provide a formal space for a "Peoples Plenary"; a terrific initiative where vulnerable communities and activists can get to claim a high profile platform in which to express their hopes for and fears of the consequences of this COPs outcomes specifically, and global commitments more generally, to preserving and adapting to the 1.5DegC target while addressing the many issues identified above.

Photo: COP27 Peoples Plenary

The COP27 sideshow continues tomorrow but typically the population dwindles by about half at this time. Many of the delegates actually don’t engage in or follow the negotiations, and prefer instead to showcase and promote their solutions, beliefs and pathways forward. This demonstrates the power of the COPs convening power for people from all over the world and all walks of life and interests and pursuits to serve as a global catalyst of influence and opportunity.  

Stay tuned for the finale tomorrow when all will be revealed by the COP President (or will it?)

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